Comcast Marketing Strategy

|Marketing Strategy | |Comcast Corporation | | | | | | | | | | | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Comcast Corporation is facing strong new competition in markets where it used to have none. Comcast has been losing analog cable television customers while at the same time seeing reduced growth of subscribers for its new services. For example, Comcast added 247,000 digital cable subscribers in the 4th quarter of 2008, which is less than half of the 530,000 subscribers they added at the same time the previous year (businessinsider. com). Comcast is the largest cable company in the United States. In most of the regions that they operate, they are almost a monopoly. In Maryland alone, they command 82% of the cable market (allbusiness. om). Unfortunately, Comcast has taken the attitude of a monopoly when it comes to customer service and pricing. In 2004 and 2007, Comcast had the worst customer satisfaction rating of any company in the country (wikipedia. org). Comcast's legacy of terrible customer service has their customers ready to jump to a new company's service as soon as it becomes available. Telecommunications companies have begun to capitalize on this by implementing new technologies to provide digital television, high speed internet and internet telephony services over their existing networks in order to compete directly against Comcast. In order to fulfill Comcast's mission of offering the best products and the most customer-friendly and reliable service in the market, we are proposing a new Customer Service initiative as well as a Total Content Distribution strategy. This involves acquiring media content providers in order to provide exclusive content and to offer a one-stop shopping experience for consumers for all their entertainment and communication needs. Market Definition and Opportunity Comcast identifies its target market size as 50. million homes, located in 39 states and the District of Columbia, which can be connected to its distribution system without further extension of transmission lines. Currently, Comcast has 24. 2 million video customers (47. 8% penetration), 14. 9 million high-speed internet customers (29. 7% penetration), and 6. 5 million phone customers (13. 9% penetration). Comcast generates approximately 95% of its consolidated revenue from its Cable segment. Its cable systems simultaneously deliver video, high-speed internet and phone services to its customers (2008 Annual Report). Appendix A: Example Customer Satisfaction Survey In your most recent customer service experience, how did you contact the representative? ( )In Person ( )By Telephone ( )Internet ( )Other About how long did you have to wait before speaking to a representative? ( )I was taken care of immediately ( )Within 3 minutes ( )3-5 minutes ( )5-10 minutes ( )More than 10 minutes Did our representative†¦ (Select all that apply) ( )Quickly identify the problem ( )Appear knowledgeable and competent ( )Help you understand the cause and the solution to the problem ( )Handle issues with courtesy and professionalism About how long did it take to get this problem resolved? )Immediate Resolution ( )Less than a day ( )Between 2 and 3 days ( )Between 3 and 5 days ( )More than a week ( )The problem is still not resolved How many times did you have to contact customer service before the problem was corrected? ( )Once ( )Twice ( )Three Times ( )More than Three times On a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 represents â€Å"Extremely dissatisfied† and 5 rep resents â€Å"Extremely Satisfied,† please answer the below questions and provide any explanation that could help us to improve our customer service. How satisfied are you with the customer service experience? Overall, how would you rate your level of satisfaction with Comcast? If you were less than totally satisfied, what could have been done to serve you better? WORKS CITED â€Å"Comcast. † Wikipedia. org. Wikipedia. org, 2009. Web. 24 November 2009. http://en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Comcast Comcast Corporation. Annual Report, 2008. Philadelphia, PA: Comcast Corporation, 2008. Frommer, Dan. â€Å"Comcast Beats Street, But Growth Hits the Wall. † The Business Insider. Silicon Valley Insider, 2009. Web. 18 February 2009. http://www. businessinsider. com/comcast-beats-street-but-growth-hits-the-wall-2009-2 â€Å"HD Market Penetration at All-Time High. † Afterdawn. com. AfterDawn Ltd, 2009. Web. 19 October 2009. ttp://www. afterdawn. com/news/archive/16014. cfm/ Herman, Josh. â€Å"Consumers on the Move. † Direct, 1 June 2006: pp 30-31. Mello, John P. â€Å"DVR Market Penetration: Riding a Provider-Powered Wave. † TechNewsWorld. com. E-Commerce Times, 2007. Web. 19 October 2009. http://www. technewsworld. com/story/media-conver gence/59497. html. â€Å"New Verizon Wireless Advertising Campaign Introduces the People Behind the Nation's Most Reliable Wireless Network. † World’s Technology News. Technology News, 2009. Web. 25 November 2009. http://www. mirror99. com/20060514/new_verizon_wireless_advertising_campaign_introduces_the_peo le_behind_the_nation_s_most_reliable_wireless_dfjg. jspx O’Donnell, Jayne. â€Å"Gen Y Sits on Top of Consumer Food Chain. † USA Today, 11 October 2006: p. 3B â€Å"Research: Internet connected TVs the trend for 2009. † Copypaste. nl. Copypaste Media, 9 August 2009. Web. 19 October 2009. http://www. copypaste. nl/788/research-internet-connected-tvs-now-officially-the-trend-for-2009. Waddell, Ray. â€Å"Comcast Center Title Deal Is One For Record Books. † AllBusiness. AllBusiness, 2000. Web. 24 January 2000. http://www. allbusiness. com/services/amusement-recreation-services/4560069-1. html

Energy Self Sufficiency Leading To Carbon Credits Environmental Sciences Essay

Carbon credits are tradable license strategies in conformity with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change besides called as UNFCC.This schems gives the holder a right to emanation of one equivalent of metric ton of C dioxide. They provide a mechanism which efficaciously reduces the nursery gas emanations and therefore leting to gain through the emanation decrease. In rural countries, India has immense potency to gain emanation allowances through the proviso of domestic energy which is replacing based. They besides have fuel switching undertakings like solar cookers, biogas, solar cells and chullahs which are smoke free This survey proposes a general mathematical theoretical account that assesses the economical viability and potency of CDM Programme Matic a.k.a the Clean Development Mechanism which is developed on biogas undertaking for energy at families to supply autonomy in rural parts of India. statistical analysis have been used to rank the design variables. The research survey theoretical account is based on 10 small towns in Jhunjhunu, a territory of Rajasthan, India covering a population of about 31,000 people. The collected for the research intent is secondary informations. This theoretical account is applicable to all small towns in India. It is possible to cipher the figure programmatic CDM is based on the household system of the biogas undertaking. Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, December 11, 1997 and entered into force February 16, 2005. 180 states have ratified to day of the month. It aims to cut down nursery gas emanations by 5.2 % compared to 1990 degrees during the five old ages 2008-2012. Developed states are classified in Annex 1-countries and is bound by the Protocol, while developing states classified as non-Annex 1-countries that have ratified the Protocol are non bound lawfully by the extension. The Kyoto Protocol provides three mechanisms: Joint execution ( JI ) , Clean Development Mechanism ( CDM ) and The International Emissions Trading ( IET ) . In conformity with the CDM, Annex 1 states can run into their decrease marks by implementationof emanation decrease undertakings in developing states under non-Annex 1. A CER ( certified emanation decreases ) is issued by the Board of CDM undertakings in developing states which is a certification that certifies emanations have been reducedby one metric ton of C equivalentinternal-di-oxide every twelvemonth. Annex 1 states buy these CERs to run into their mark of emanation decrease. Under the Joint Implementation ( JI ) , an supplement, a party may implement a undertaking that enhances remotions from sinks in other states or canimplement projectsto cut down emanation in another states. ERUs ( emanation decrease units ) can be used to accomplish these aims. Harmonizing to the International Emissions Trading Scheme ( EIT ) mechanism, states can merchandise their extra credits on the international market for C credits to states with committednesss to quantify restriction of emanation and decrease of emanation as per the Kyoto Protocol.India is considered one of the biggest donees of C trading among the developing states, through the execution Clean Development Mechanism ( CDM ) ._2. Methodology2.1. BackgroundGlobal heating is due to greenhouse gases ( GHGs ) that are captured in the ambiance. The tabular array shows the planetary heating ( GW ) of gas potency. Greenhouse gas emanations are powerful: C di-oxide, methane, azotic oxide, hydroflourocarbons, perflourocarbons and sulphur hexaflouride. CERs awarded = Tons of GHG reduced X GW potency of the gas ( metric dozenss of C ) aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦ ( 1 ) Table 1: Global warming potency of gases CDM undertakings are intended to be a lever for sustainable development [ 1, 2 ] . The consequences of the CDM undertaking has beendirected to sustainable development standards of the host state. Clearance of the National CDM Authority sustainability in India is spearheaded by the Union Environment and Forests. The basic rules of sustainable development, economic prosperity, environmental wellbeing and prosperity of the engineering. Reporting Program under the CDM is a new attack to the development of CDM undertakings registered with UNFCCC in a Plan of Action ( plan activities ) . This action is voluntary and a public private entity coordinates it, This consists of an CDM undertaking activities ( CPA ) which are unlimited in figure. An Action Plan can be constituted either by big or little CPA CPA. All undertakings under the Programme of Action must hold an implementing entity approved by the host DNA ( Designated National Authority ) . The plan activities of the bill of exchange declaration is limited to steps or enterprises in which activities that induce nursery gas decrease and the evidences of emanations can be identified and verified more clearly. Therefore, a policy that would extinguish fossil fuels or implementing a national cap and trade is non frequently considered a bill of exchange plan unless the actions applied are non identifiable clearly as attributable measuring and verifiable ex station [ 3 ] . The nucleus appears as a CDM Program is: They are the consequence of a calculated plan that is either working in the public sector or private sector enterprise. Plan consequences in a broad scope of disparate activities that have benn introduced by the plan and will non go on, but for following the plan. Actions that cut down nursery gases do non needfully happen at the same time. Type, size and timing of actions to cut down emanations caused by the plan might be unknown during the clip of undertaking enrollment.2.2. ExecutionThe methodological analysis of execution of the research is shown in Figure 1 The method involved the executing of the undermentioned stages:2.2.1. Survey – 1The research is based on the informations collected via the secondary beginnings which involves the probe and survey of bing energy beginnings and energy demands across Pilani and the small towns nearby in its first phase.2.2.1.1. Choice of small townsThe secondary informations Si via the 10 small towns studies conducted covering the territory of Jhunjhunu in Rajasthan, India. The choice of small towns was had a sample infinite which was diverse in nature and took the undermentioned factors into history: Context of people in economic footings Village occupants Background Based on the parametric quantities, 10 small towns near the metropolis Jhunjhunu territory, Rajasthan, India were selected. Dhandar Jherli Kazi Kulhariyon ka Baaz Likhowa Naurangpura Nuhand Raila Baas Thirpali.Figure 1: Methodology of Execution2.2.2.Study of UNFCCC methodological analysissClean Development Mechanism ( CDM ) , the methods of little under the UNFCCC relevant in the small towns above the selected energy industries ( renewable and nonrenewablein sector-1, waste direction and disposal in sector-15, agribusiness ( sector-13 ) and have been detailed.2.2.3. Choice of family based biogas workssBiogas has been found the best solution for the demand of rural India ‘s turning energy and supply of energy is deficient. Biogas workss have the great possible to do money from C credits and from all other solutions that are possible such as solar, air current, etc.2.2.4.Survey – 2Survey-2 was done in the small towns themselves Survey-1. This survey includes an appraisal of the parametric quantities of economic viability and feasibleness of Programmatic CDM is based on the biogas undertaking.2.2.5. Development of generalized mathematical theoretical accountOn the observ ations and analysis of the Survey-2 A a mathematical theoretical account was formulated which was general in nature. This was done to measure the economic viability of a CDM plan Matic family biogas undertaking in operation.3. Consequences and Discussions3.1. Research Surveys3.1.1. Survey – 1The the first was done with the end and the visit was to reexamine the beginnings of energy presently used and energy demands of the villagers. The parametric quantities that were calculated through the first study were: Main fuel for cookery. The mean fuel ingestion per twenty-four hours. The mean distance travelled by each twenty-four hours to acquire fuel for cookery. Entree to hours of electricity a twenty-four hours. Plants of family electricity ingestion and day-to-day energy.3.1.2. Survey – 2Biogas should be set up to back up programmatic CDM undertaking. Estimated parametric quantities in the 2nd survey were: W – A Will to put in a biogas works. the appraisal was done on a graduated table of 1-10 on the footing of a questionnaire. C – Fuel cost per twenty-four hours per family in the INR. P – Appraisal on a graduated table of 1-5 of a Prior cognition of biogas workss E -The ratio of the energy required for readying of family and the household members. A – Income per twelvemonth per family in the INR. N – Cattles owned by each family The mentioned standards are decisive for a biogas palnt undertaking execution.3.2. ObservationsThe Figure2 shows the consequence for Dhandar small town for the reading of informations collected via secondary study. Figure 2: The parametric quantities of observation in the Dhandar small town. Figure 2-a: The parametric quantity W – willingness to put, is being rated on the graduated table of 1-10 for the set of observations from the small town. Figure 2-b: The parametric quantity C – cost of fuel, is being calculated for each household for the set of observations from the small town. Figure 2-c: The parametric quantity A – income per twelvemonth per household ( in INR in 1000s ) , is being calculated for each household for the set of observations from the small town. Figure 2-d: The parametric quantity E – energy required by each household, is being calculated for each household for the set of observations from the small town. Figure 2-e: The parametric quantity N – cowss owned by each family, is being calculated for each household for the set of observations from the small town. Figure 2-f: The parametric quantity P – subsequent cognition of the biogas works, is being rated on the graduated table of 1-5 for the set of observations from the small town. On the similar evidences, the information was collected for the other nine small towns and analysis was done.3.3. Description of mathematical theoretical accountThe footing of information gathered in the survey-2, a numerical theoretical account was formulated with 1 employee, and five independent variables [ 4 ] . The handiness of investment-W is the dependent variable and independent parametric quantities, the figure of cowss per household-N, the one-year income, anterior cognition of biogas workss, energy PE demand, the monetary value of fuel-C are independent variables. W = degree Fahrenheit ( A, P, C, E, N ) aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦ . ( 2 ) W = 0.189 x ln [ ( A ) 2 + 1.216 ] + 0.541P + 0.287 ten e0.178C + 0.134 x ( 0.312 x E2 + 1.147 x E ) + 0.201 ten ln ( 2.916 x N ) aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦ ( 3 ) Where, W – A Will to put in a biogas works. the appraisal was done on a graduated table of 1-10 on the footing of a questionnaire. C – Fuel cost per twenty-four hours per family in the INR. P – Appraisal on a graduated table of 1-5 of a Prior cognition of biogas workss E -The ratio of the energy required for readying of family and the household members. A – Income per twelvemonth per family in the INR. N – Cattles owned by each family Benchmark sizes for household-based biogas leaf in India, 1m3, 2m3, 3m3 and 4m3 severally. But took the on the whole accepted 3m3 DeenBandhu fixed dome biogas works theoretical account, which has sold more units in India. His power is sufficient to run into basic energy demands of the kitchen for a household in India. Co-relation between the size and has earned the enfranchisement Certified 1.26 per three-dimensional metre in the figure of fixed dome type biogas works. This is calculated utilizing the UNFCCC, small-scale methodological analysis AMS-III.R [ 5 ] applies to the territory Jhunjhunu, Rajasthan, India.3.4. Model applicationThe map gives the value of willingness to put in a family biogas works, which lies in the scope of 1 to 10. With this value, it is possible to gauge the figure of old ages the biogas works should be sustained to do the undertaking economically executable. The theoretical account application is as follows: For a peculiar family the willingness to put calculated from the proposed mathematical theoretical account is- † K † where K is an whole number from 1-10. The cost of a 3m3 Deenbandhu biogas works is INR 11,000 ( including installing cost ) . The figure of CERs ( Certified Emission Reductions ) per biogas works of size 3cum is 3.48 [ 5 ] .3.5. Sensitivity AnalysisThe order parametric quantity scope for each parametric quantity was calculated utilizing Eq. 4. aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦.. ( 4 )__This rank order parametric quantity indicates whether we are negociating positive important extra costs for big negative or little positive extra incremental costs for little extra negative [ 6 ] . The sensitiveness analysis on the map it was found that energy demand has been puting the highest rank of the parametric quantity ( Fig. 3 ) . Parameters such as fuel cost and anterior cognition was besides important. Parameters, viz. the figure of cowss and the mean monthly income is less dominant than other parametric quantities known in progress, the monetary value of fuel and energy demands. Calculations for a sample family in rural India with the following parametric quantities: Annual Income = INR 13200 Cpst of fuel per twenty-four hours = INR 7 Number of Cattle = 2 Prior cognition of Biogas workss = 3.5 Energy Needs = 6 From the mathematical theoretical account, the willingness to put is calculated to be, k = 6.99. Therefore the figure of old ages, the works should be sustainable = 2.81 old ages. Sum of money paid by the husbandman: ( R/10 ) x 11000. Accessory cost per biogas works including CDM enrollment cost, DOE confirmation cost, care cost is assured to be 20 % of each biogas works cost. Effective cost of each biogas works = INR 13200. Sum of money to be got from C credits = [ ( 10-k ) x 13200 ] /10 The monetary value of CERs = 10USD = INR 447.4 The figure of old ages the biogas works should be sustained = [ ( 10 – Roentgen ) x 13200 ] / [ 10 x 447.2 x3.48 ] Figure 3: Senstivity Analysis Willingness to put in a biogas works Investing will depend on the parametric quantities of one-year income, preliminary informations, the cost of fuel, it needs energy and the figure of animate beings. While the rural population in India will hold an acute energy crisis, the willingness to put in renewable energy such as biogas is important. They are easy to raw cow droppings, and proficient aid expertness to run the staff of families in biogas workss. This besides saves the cost of procurance of fuel per twenty-four hours as wood, coal, kerosine, etc. Unlike community biogas works, which will confront many obstructions for the installing and the production of biogas can be used in personal considerations of the household. The preparedness to put ( W ) in biogas depends on the undermentioned parametric quantities: Energy demands: Energy demands is the most dominant factor in the willingness to put in biogas workss in rural India. Energy needs is considered straight relative to the figure of people at place that is about 6 in rural India. electricity supply in most parts of rural India is limited to 6-8 hours per twenty-four hours. The current energy beginnings are deficient to run into turning energy demands of rural India. Hence the desire invest in a biogas works which serves as an first-class alternate beginning of energy is really high. Cost of fuel: The cost of fuel is besides a cardinal variable in the willingness to put in biogas workss in rural India. Due to miss of power and the turning energy demands, alternate energy beginnings such as kerosine, coal and wood became expensive. Spend a important part of their limited income on fuel markets is earnestly impacting the quality of life of rural India. When the fuel cost becomes a dominant parametric quantity willingness to put in a biogas works. Anterior Knowledge: Prior cognition of the biogas works is besides a dominant variable in the willingness of invest.The anterior cognition was assessed on the footing of a questionnaire on a graduated table of 1 to 5 The deficiency of anterior cognition was a major obstruction in the spread of biogas workss in rural India. Therefore, prior cognition has a important part in the will put. Annual Income: The mean one-year income of rural India is low compared to their urban India. Consequently, the rural multitudes are non able to exchange to more expensive beginnings of energy such as LPG ( liquefied crude oil gas ) . The sum to be invested in the biogas works is low-cost for the rural multitudes and carnal fecal matters entry demands is available at a nominal cost. Therefore the part of the twelvemonth grosss for the constitution of the will to put is non important. If the income from C credits is included, the importance of one-year income to cut down farther. Number of cowss: India has 289 million cowss [ 7 ] , and as a consequence of cow droppings are widely available and a nominal monetary value. As a consequence, fewer cows does non impact the handiness of household to put significantly.3.6. Mistake AnalysisValuess predicted by the theoretical account mistake is about 10 % ( Figure 4 ) . This suggests that the theoretical account is much more accurate. There are five sets of informations that is outside this border of mistake of 10 % . These are the random mistakes due to defective observations. Figure 4: Mistake Analysis aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦ †¦ ( 5 ) The standard divergence ( SD ) is calculated by the undermentioned expression, aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦aˆÂ ¦ ( 6 ) The mean per centum mistake is 0.17468341 and the standard divergence is 0.076910884. DecisionThis theoretical account can be applied to all small towns in India, to cipher the figure of old ages, families programmatic CDM undertaking based on the biogas must be maintained so that the returns from the sale of C accumulated by the undertaking makes the undertaking economically feasible. The parametric quantities used to cipher the willingness to put in biogas can be obtained straight from the Census of India. The proviso of agencies to put in biogas workss to run into turning energy demands of small towns in Jhunjhunu territory, Rajasthan, India, is high. The mean value of 6.64 is ready to put in a graduated table of 1 to 10. So that the willingness to put average = 6.64, for many old ages, the biogas works would be to accomplish sustainable profitableness = 3.14 old ages. Demand for energy is the most dominant factor in the willingness to put in a biogas works. It besides means that rural India is presently confronting a immense energy shortage. Cost of fuel and knows the significance through Before the willingness to put in a biogas works. The one-year figure of cowss and is comparatively less with regard to the willingness to put. Outgo on fuel nest eggs through the permutation of biogas is non taken into history. If this sum is included, the biogas works undertaking on the family becomes more economically advantageous.

Poem Analysis on “Out, Out-, ” by Robert Frost Essay

My emotions toward this poem are depressed, forlorn, and melancholy. In â€Å"’Out, Out-,’†, a young boy is at work about to go to dinner when suddenly the saw cuts off his hand. A boy his age shouldn’t have to die doing a man’s job. Work back then had unimaginable conditions that made you want to cry. The line that struck out at me the most was â€Å"Don’t let him cut my hand off- The, When he comes. Don’t let him sister!† So. But the hand was already gone. This made my whole body convulse at the thought of his hand being cut off and eventually causing his death. When breaking down the poem, I realized he used repetition of the words â€Å"snarled and rattled†. For me it created an ominous and almost foreshadowing affect. The working condition was not up to par, and Frost shows this by the line â€Å"And they, since they were not the one dead, turned to their affairs.† This shows how people acted towards children working and that anything can happen. It also produced a personification because a saw doesn’t answer to when being called to supper, nor can it leap. â€Å"His sister stood beside him in her apron To tell them ‘Supper.’ At the word, the saw, As if to prove saws know what supper meant, Leaped out at the boy’s hand, or seemed to leap— He must have given the hand.† Frost uses emotionally filled words in this poem. That must mean that he was attached to it emotionally and personally. I did some background research and it is possible that he based it off of his neighbor’s son, Raymond Fitzgerald who cut off his hand with a saw and bled until he went into shock, causing heart failure. People either were not aware of the conditions back then, or they did and couldn’t do anything about it because they needed the money. In that time period, everyone in the family had to contribute to survive. I believe he was also making a statement towards the government for not making regulations on the age  requirement of eligibility to work.

Current Technology Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Current Technology - Assignment Example The main purpose of service packs is that they help from security breaches like network intrusion, viruses, Trojan horses, and etcetera. To set up Wi-Fi, you first need a broadband internet connection which is a high speed connection, very fast as compared to a dial-up connection using a telephone line. Then, you need a modem. For a wireless network, a cable modem is recommended which is a device that enables high speed internet connectivity. Afterwards, you would need a wireless router, that is, a device that will facilitate the flow of data traffic between all the PCs that are to be networked together (see Figure 1). Most laptops today have built-in wireless network adaptors which save one from buying an external adapter. Now, let’s explain how Wi-Fi works. The user should have the cable modem and the router hooked up to the wall. The modem is to be connected to the broadband internet connection, and the wireless router is to be connected to the modem (see Figure 2). The use r will have to plug one end of the network cable, that came with the router, to the WLAN port of the router, and the other end to the modem. This is how the modem and router get connected. After the cable is plugged into the router, then to confirm if it has fruitfully connected to the modem, they should see the WLAN mark on the router. If it has lighten up, that means the user has done it. Now, the wireless router needs to be configured properly. First of all, the user needs to connect his PC to the router just temporarily using the network cable that came with the router, in any one of the wired ports on the router other than the WLAN port. He should, after turning on the PC and opening a page in the internet explorer, type in the address of the router in the address bar. He can get this address from the instruction manual he must have got from the router’s vendor. A dialog box will appear that will demand username and password. This also can be searched from the manual. Af ter the password has been created, he will be directed to the router’s configuration page. The things that necessarily need to be configured are creating a distinctive name for the wireless network, enabling WPE2 encryption for network intrusion detection, and creating an administrative password. This will help him save his network from unauthorized access. After saving the changes, the router’s configuration is completed. He, then, needs to unplug the PC from the router. The PC will either automatically detect the router if it has a built-in wireless network adapter, or the user will have to configure the external network adapter by inserting the CD that came with it. The user will go to the wireless network icon in the icon tray located at the bottom right corner of the computer screen, select connect to the network, click on the name of the router, and get connected. The router will transmit information through the modem over to the internet. Wherever the user takes his PC, he will be wirelessly connected to the router. There will be no need to keep stuck at one place because there will be no wires connected to the PC. 3. Advantages First of all, the greatest advantage is that the user does not have to get stuck in bundles of wires, since Wi-Fi is a wireless

International Business Master Case Study Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

International Business Master - Case Study Example Customers are not just people outside a corporation. It can be the people at the upper crust of an organization, or the employees. In fact, Mountain Equipment Co-op's customers are also the members (part-owners) of the co-op. Since the market for the co-op's products is unique, it needs to ensure quality, which increase value of the product for the customer. Therefore, the co-op uses extreme care to select its range of products to be manufactured. It wants the suppliers to provide products that are both functional and durable. Furthermore, the co-op offers a lifetime guarantee of its products to make the customers feel that the maintenance of the equipment is the duty of Mountain Equipment Co-op. This increases value for the customer because the customer no longer has to worry about the cost of repair of the equipment. Furthermore, the co-op also offers its members to trade their equipment online or through attending a seasonal trade session (n.d.). Moreover, the co-op values human r ights and business practices in the light of ethics. It continuously strives to protect human rights by inspecting factories where its products are manufactured. Inspection involves working conditions, worker benefits, and worker pay. Since the customers really value fair business, the co-op utilizes this opportunity to satisfy its members by giving a portion of their sales revenue to human rights groups. The co-op also uses an environmentally safe heating and air-conditioning system at its Ottawa outlet, indicating the co-op growing concerns about the environment. Moreover, the co-op continues to provide exceptional service to its customers through training. As mentioned before, this is a unique market and new outdoor freaks might not know how to use the equipment. This is an added value for the product because the customer knows that training would be provided to utilize the product to its fullest. The co-op is also using support activities to increase its member tally and revenue . For example, the co-op is constantly monitoring latest technology in the industry to develop the most advanced products, high quality products, and environmentally safe products. The most important value activity which the co-op uses is the power of its members to have a say in the co-op's operations and running. The co-op has 2.5 million members who are part-owners of the company, and have a say at the company's meeting. This activity attracts potential members and customers, and they can run the co-op according to what satisfies their needs. Q2: What is the co-op's generic strategy Describe it. Mountain Equipment Co-op generic strategy is the cost strategy. Mountain Equipment Co-op aims to achieve growth through a series of cost cutting measures and cost reductions. Firstly, Mountain Equipment Co-op has a loyal customer base, and they use this strong factor to bargain for reasonable prices from suppliers. Due to the high bargaining power of the co-op, suppliers have to give in. Furthermore, the mountain co-op has a small workforce. It strives to keep a small workforce through the concept of self-service at its outlets. This way, even the limited number of employees is happy because the co-op

How much of the United Kingdom's energy needs could be covered by Essay

How much of the United Kingdom's energy needs could be covered by renewable energy sources in 25 years - Essay Example Renewable energy is energy that relies on sources and natural energy flow from the environment, which never run out because of continuous replenishment. UK has the world’s largest resources for renewable energy such as wind, tides, waves, and therefore, it is in a good position when it comes to natural energy resources. Shifting to renewable energy is not only essential for stopping fossil energy imports, but it will also create an avenue for exporting natural based energy to other countries with limited supply of natural energy. In addition, increasing focus on environmentally friendly energy also prompts UK to switch to renewable energy sources. This aims at limiting the effects of climate change, and protecting environment from degradation, thus, preserving it for the generations to come. The success of venturing into renewable energy depends on environmental economic and political factors. Overview of Renewable Energy Sources in the United Kingdom Renewable energy currentl y supplies a significant of part of the UK’s energy demands. ... be because renewable energy sources are expensive, for example, the Energy Minister himself, George Eustice, recently made a comment saying solar and wind power subsidies are too high to benefit consumers (Mason, 2013). This among other challenges is preventing renewable energy sources become the primary source of energy production. Plans are underway to attain a 30 percent target of renewable energy by 2020 in the United Kingdom, which is quite achievable given the advancements in technology and rich sources of renewable energy. Below are the primary sources of renewable energy in the United Kingdom and there sources of application. Wind Power Wind power is energy generated using wind turbines fixed in the windy regions especially the countryside. The amount of wind power therefore depends on the availability of acceptable sites. Currently, winds turbines are set up in several places including Wales, Scotland, Yorkshire, and Cornwall. The primary application of wind power is the gen eration of wind related electricity, in which it currently provides for 20% of electricity requirements in the country. In 2010, there were a number of significant wind related projects in the UK with Sands, Gunfleet, Thanet and Robin Rigg, which are offshore wind farms. As a result, this saw a 1.1 GW power capacity from the new wind, which is a 3% increase compared to 2009 data (Gifford, 2012). Furthermore, offshore installations increased to 230% with 653 MW though with 503W it reduced by 38%. Similarly, 2013 has seen great improvements recording 10GW by mid-2013, and UK being the eighth largest producer of wind power in the world, there is great expectation of growth with respect to its wind power capacity (DUKES, 2013). Furthermore, current estimates stands at 2 GW increase in wind

How can we distinguish between a liberal and a conservative in the Essay

How can we distinguish between a liberal and a conservative in the United States What fundamental assumptions separate these two ideologies - Essay Example Ideologies are formed by a person’s innermost beliefs, cultivated by years of thought and shaped by life’s numerous experiences. An ideological debate causes a more emotive response in individuals than does any other. Political ideologies can never die and in politically turbulent times, such as these, are very much alive. The 9-11 attacks, abortion the war in Iraq, the loss of civil liberties, global warming, health care, gay marriage, stem cell research and many other politically motivating subjects have ignited emotional ideological battles. This discussion explains the reasons for and provides examples of the current ideological fervor in the U.S. and will explain the discrepancies of a failed conservative ideology, which has been a major factor in this awakening. The tenets of Liberalism proclaim a strong conviction in democracy and belief that the constitutional authority of the people will limit a powerful, expansive government. Liberal legislative leadership, partly through necessity, has instigated steady governmental growth well beyond where the architects of the constitution and most citizens would favor. The conservative ideology is based upon their interpretation of Christian-based morality. Conservatives are against the government regulating corporations but are very much for legislation that regulates the private conduct of individuals and for advancing their religious agenda regardless of the irreparable damage to civil rights and liberties or the scientific or constitutional evidence that is contrary to their opinion. Abortion, stem cells, teaching evolution and gay marriage are preeminent examples of current ideological debates between Conservatives and Liberals. Those of a conservative ideology are against legalizing abortion. They believe it to be murder and are crusading to save babies’ lives. However,

Politics and government Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Politics and government - Essay Example Additionally, politics is applied on an extensive range of communal levels, from modern local governments, tribes and clans of traditional community, institutions and companies up to international levels, and also to independent states. Therefore, Government is the system through which a community or state is governed. However, the term government can be used scarcely to refer to a combined group of people who carry outs executive authority in a nation. Thus, the broader definition of the word government, generally consists of administrators, arbitrators and legislators. Thus, Government is the means by which the mechanism for determining the policy of the state and enforcement of the state policy. Furthermore, a form of state government thus refers to a set of political institutions and systems that come up with the establishment of a particular government. Additionally, both government and politics are words that are interrelated and are reliant on each other. For instance, for governing one needs to be aware of the politics art. Whereas a politician who is in control must know how to govern. In today’s society, politics is important because it tells people how societies should be formed and how one should act in a community. Moreover, due to the power, governments have abused lately, some people don’t believe its importance in the community or society. However, government is necessary and will be necessary if every new age group comes up with a new crop of predators. Therefore, the governments upholds individual bill of rights through the constitution. For instance, the freedom to speech, freedom to association, freedom of worship among others. Further, the na me of this political system is socialism. Lastly, politicians set rules and regulations that are fundamental for the smooth running of the government (Hague and Harrop, 210). My level of interest in politics and

Analysis of Violence Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words - 1

Analysis of Violence - Essay Example We have characters that are considered as the models who defied the violence as a means to achieve their objectives. Probably the paramount example is of Jesus Christ. Records suggest that Jesus was a pacifist and the dictionary definition of Pacifist suggest someone as opposed to the violence. There is a very famous saying associated with Jesus that if someone slaps on your right cheek, give him the left too. His teachings and methods were greatly opposed to the violence as a means to achieve the objectives. Though the political situation at that time was extremely volatile and violence would have been the most natural reaction however the same was not the case. Though evidence suggests that followers of Jesus were violent in their response to Jesus cruxification, however, Jesus himself as a prophet, as a leader and political activist. (Rational Chrastinity, 2008). The second personality which we are going to discuss is the personality of Mahatma Gandhi. Mahatma Gandhi oversaw one of the brightest freedom struggles in the World. The liberation of India from the British rule was one of the longest and bloodiest freedom struggles, however, Gandhi, by adopting the principles of HANSA, refused to adopt violence as the mean to achieve his objectives. His Sataygra or Non-Violence Movement is considered as one of the most organized political efforts of non-violence where the whole India was united in their peaceful protest against the British Occupation. (BBC, 2000). The political history of also further suggests that Gandhi, who was killed by a Hindu, stood for the rights of divided India when India was separated into two states of Pakistan and India. It was because of these reasons that he was awarded the prestigious MAN OF THE CENTURY nomination at the turn of the new century. The similarity between these two personalities is the fact they both adapted peace as the mean of achieving their objectives though at the cost of their own lives.

Supply chain management Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Supply chain management - Essay Example Many managers of the supply chain are now coming to the realization that the traditional approaches are not sufficient in keeping up with the changes. These traditional approaches do not give the incentives or even means to make continuous changes that are necessary to remain competitive. In order for them to stay in business, the managers of the supply chain need to act, as well as think, differently with the changes that they are required to institute being profound. What makes a difference between leaders and â€Å"laggers† is the ability to give services and products in a sustainable and consistent way that are reflective of higher agility, higher transportation speed, lower prices, and higher quality (Wisner et al, 22). Some of the concepts that would be proposed in the pursuit of achievement of the goals are environmental sustainability, quality practices and better designs, and lean manufacturing. These concepts need to be assessed and their adoption facilitated in New Zealand. In recent times, New Zealand has seen a significant increase in awareness, generally, of strategies of quality improvement, supplier integration, and lean manufacturing. ... It is, therefore, vital that all producers comprehend good agricultural practice and their supply chain (The Agri-chain Center 1). The supply chain also consists of quality assurance where freshly produced goods have quality assurance services that are inclusive of product assessments with basis on sound knowledge of the product, as well as a thorough comprehension of plant pathology after harvesting. The consumer is the next link in the supply chain; they have an increased awareness in relation to quality and safety of the products. The organization must ensure that they meet the demands through a conduction of consumer and climate survey (The Agri-chain Center 1). Product safety solutions are yet another link in the supply chain management. The organizations offer a wide array of product-safety training, as well as support options that adhere to the necessities of consumers and the regulatory institutions (The Agri-chain Center 1). In the transportation of products internationally, organizations also require that imported goods on the high seas to the consumer comply with bio-security requirements of the Ministry for Primary Industries. These organizations now have at their disposal an array of services that ensure they achieve compliance with the Ministry of primary Industries. Finally, there is training for most organizations in areas of quality and safety of products, as well as bio-safety (The Agri-chain Center 1). Over the last fifteen years, most organizations in New Zealand are now making genuine improvements as they move to customer focused and quality based strategies of supply chain management away from strategies and tactics based on cost (Wisner et al, 32). There are also significant increases in the awareness, generally, on strategies of

Case Study 3 Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

3 - Case Study Example This will cover the whole incident involving Brad Hutchinson. The cause and the circumstances of the incident will be highlighted. It is necessary to protect the reputation of the esteemed TV station. Additionally, the station personnel in the security department should help in investigating the incident in order to obtain substantial information to provide to the public. The incident has compromised the integrity standard, which every media employee should comply with all the time. The effect of this mundane act to the society is that the station will be associated with drug trafficking. The station usually condemns the vice of drug trafficking. This situation will compromise the moral stand of the station. The duty of care regulation for the media station has also been compromised because Hutchinson did not care to avoid criminal activities like indulgence in cocaine trafficking. This will imply that the station will file a case against him for his misdeeds. The other issue, which the station must contend with, is the connection of the station to drug trafficking because Hutchinson works like a WWES-TV station agent. In this regard, the station must engage its lawyer in order to establish the merits of the case and the evidence, which will corroborate the evidence of the police investigators. Pat Albright should be at the forefront in defending the name of WWES-TV station. Additionally, the station should fire Hutchinson immediately and seek another qualified news anchor to replace him. According to Berkman (2008), the station can outsource the news anchor from its peer TV stations or promote its employee to the position for a news anchor. Moreover, this move should be publicized in order to show the public that the station has a good employee disciplinary system. This incident will also erode all the strides the Hutchinson had made as a new anchor at the WWES-TV station. The incident will also affect the relationship of the TV station

Hospital Acquired Infections Essay Example for Free

Hospital Acquired Infections Essay The State of Illinois has several guidelines and activities in place as techniques to prevent nosocomial infections. In Illinois, Healthcare Infection Control Practices Advisory Committee (HICPAC), is charged with providing advice and guidance to the Secretary, Department of Health and Human Services; the Director, CDC and the Director of the National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID), regarding the practice of hospital infection control and strategies for surveillance, prevention, and control of healthcare-associated infections. Antimicrobial resistance and related events in settings where healthcare is provided, including hospitals, ambulatory, long-term care facilities, and home health agencies, (HCIPAC, 2008) There are certain guidelines that need to be followed when working as a nurse in the state of Illinois. There are guidelines to prevent nosocomial infections when it comes to things like, hand washing techniques, urinary catheterization insertion, and so many more practices and procedures. Performing hand hygiene immediately before and after any manipulation of the catheter device or site. Ensure that only properly trained persons (e.g., hospital personnel, family members, or patients themselves) who know the correct technique of aseptic catheter insertion and maintenance are given this responsibilities. In the acute care hospital setting, insert urinary catheters using aseptic technique and sterile equipment must be adhered to in order to prevent hospital acquired infections; (AM J Infect Control,1983) Hand washing is very important when working in healthcare in the hospital setting. When hands are visibly dirty or contaminated with percutaneous material, or are visibly soiled with blood or other body fluids, wash hands with either a non-antimicrobial soap and water or an antimicrobial soap and water,(Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol,1988). If hands are not visibly soiled, use an alcohol-based hand rub for routinely decontaminating hands. Alternatively, wash hands with an antimicrobial soap and water in all clinical situations. Wash hands before having direct contact with all patients.

Platos Practice Of Death

Platos Practice Of Death In the Phaedo, Plato argues that a true philosopher practices death as if at every moment life were behind him. To understand what Plato meant by a true philosopher practicing death, it is imperative to define philosophy, and death according to Plato and Socrates. Philosophy is defined as the love and search for wisdom. On a deeper level, it refers to the search of what makes a man happy. For philosophers, philosophy or the love for and pursuit of knowledge is a way of life and not just an intellectual pursuit. Plato and Socrates define death as the ultimate separation of the soul and body. They regard the body as a prison for the soul and view death as the means of freedom for the soul. Considering Plato and Socrates definition of death, in the life of a true philosopher, death does not occur when bodily functions cease. Rather, the true philosopher is already dead before they die or before bodily functions cease. The true meaning of the phrase a true philosopher practices death as if at every moment life were behind him can be found in these definitions. For the true philosopher, life involves the search for the meaning of life or what brings happiness in life, and conforming to it. True philosophers regard the body as an obstacle to the search for knowledge and meaning in life. The need to look after the body presents numerous distractions in the quest for knowledge. As such, a true philosophers main goal is to be free of the body and its entanglements, to pursue knowledge. Plato views human nature as dualistic or composed of the soul and the body. When a true philosopher disentangles himself/herself from the body, the soul remains. In other words, the true philosopher deserts the body to live in, and seek satisfaction of the soul, which is exactly what Socrates and Plato define as death. In so doing, the true philosopher practices dying or separation of the soul and the body, long before physical death occurs. Practicing of death is essential in refining peoples character. The pursuit of bodily pleasures is the root of all evil in the society. That is why all religions in the world encourage people to abandon the search for bodily pleasures and seek spiritual gratification, which is the stance taken by Plato. Separating the body from the soul enables human beings to see beyond the gratification of the flesh and pursue the things they believe in, without fearing the consequences these things might have on the body, and is so doing, demonstrate courage that can only be seen on a higher level than the body. Part 2: Nietzsches eternal return Nietzsche takes an evidently different view from Plato on life. He argues that we should live every day as though everything that happens in life will return eternally. Nietzsche takes on an approach that is not popular with religions and some philosophers to explain his point. For Nietzsche, the secret to living a fulfilled life is accepting and embracing reality. This is the true mark of a free spirit, or a spirit that is not hindered by anything. Many people suffer physically and mentally and go through life just trying to survive, in the hope for a better after life that transcends the current life. This is the stance taken by some religions such as Christianity. However, Nietzsche calls this self deception. In living life as though every day will recur, Nietzsche encourages one to accept what is and what has happened, and move to a higher level of liberation where one can will for what has happened to reoccur. The true meaning of life as Nietzsche explains is saying yes to life. He argues that it is not possible to separate good from bad and that suffering is a part of life that is imperative to achieve greatness. The truly free spirit is one that is grateful for everything that has happened, and one that can will for life to reoccur with all its joys, pains and sorrows, as this is the true joy of life. Free spirits enjoy life on earth and live every day to the fullest. Given a chance, they can will for everything to reoccur just as it has, as it would still deliver the same lessons that make great people. Free spirits have learned to embrace reality and not just get through life in hope for a better afterlife. This, according to Nietzsche, is living every day as though everything that happens will reoccur, and it is the true mark of a free person. Embracing Nietzsches philosophy makes people better and braver. By embracing reality, one is no longer afraid of what might happen. Rather, one can live a joyful life and take every joy, sorrow and instance of suffering as a chance to attain wisdom. The reason why one can will for an eternal recurrence is because the wisdom is not attainable without the experiences. Part Three: My view Of the two approaches to life, my preferred approach is Platos practice of death. Plato takes on a more realistic approach to life, and the end results of Nietzsches philosophy on life can still be achieved with Platos model, without having to will for an eternal recurrence. As successful people anywhere in the world will agree, attaining greatness requires one to subdue the body. Successful people usually work harder than other people. They have little regard for the wellness of the body and they force their bodies to go beyond the comfort point to achieve success. In practicing daily death of the flesh, successful people attain wisdom and greatness. Nietzsches model stresses on embracing the joys of life and living a full life on earth. However, it falls short by failing to recognize the fact that no one can truly enjoy life without hope. In the case of Plato, the hope is for eventual freedom in physical death. In the case of successful people, the hope can be for greatness or weal th but the path to this eventuality requires the daily death of the body which according to Plato is dying before you actually die.

Analysis of the core competences of PepsiCo

Analysis of the core competences of PepsiCo PepsiCo is an organization that has been known for its marketing and distribution prowess. This section is dedicated to analyzing the core competences of PepsiCo and evaluating their effect on the strategy adopted by the organization. Tangible Resources In this section, we analyse in detail, the tangible resources of PepsiCo under the following heads: Financial Resources PepsiCo has a strong financial backbone to support its aggressive marketing strategies, promotional campaigns and social activities. It works in collaboration with various governments in the countries that it operates and has operational ties with various civic authorities. Its capacity to generate finances is showcased by the fact that it could raise 31.37 billion rubles from a Ukrainian juice manufacturer, WBD which it acquired last year  [i]   Organisational Resources- PepsiCo recently revamped its organizational structure in an effort to handle the double digit growth prospects. It has three broad units, each of which looks after a sizeable business. The CEO of the company Indra Nooyi is known to be a flamboyant leader. She is known to lead by delegation and empowerment. This increases the loyalty of the employees towards the organization  [ii]  . Physical Resources PepsiCo has state-of-the-art manufacturing plants at three locations in India  [iii]  . In addition to this, it has 37 bottling plants, of which 17 are owned by PepsiCo. These are spread all over India, which help in increasing the reach of its products and ensuring timely delivery. Technological Resources PepsiCo tries to keep itself abreast of the latest technological developments. In a recent step taken, it has added hydrogen injected trucks to its delivery fleet in Canada  [iv]  . This was done as an effort towards increasing the fuel efficiency of its fleet and reducing emissions. Intangible Resources We look at the various intangible resources held by PepsiCo under the following heads: Human Resources PepsiCo attracts some of the best minds in the industry. By providing them enough financial and non-financial motivation and handing them challenging tasks to perform, they keep their employees satisfied and loyal to the organization. Innovation Resources The pace of innovation in functional foods and beverages division in PepsiCo has picked up since 2002. PepsiCo is second, after Kraft in this industry with 101 innovations since then. Some competitors are outspending PepsiCo on RD investments by nearly two to one margin  [1]  . But PepsiCo has been making good use of every dime spent on the RD as is seen from the number of innovations vis-à  -vis its competitors. Reputational Resources In a study conducted , it was seen that Pepsi as a brand enjoys a good reputation with the customers. They like it for its distinct taste. The study also pointed out that the brand name of Pepsi is certainly a force to reckon with. The quality perception of the product is generally high. However most of the customers see it as a drink second to Coke. One area wherein PepsiCo scores over its rivals is the social initiatives like contract farming and positive water balance. Due to this, it has a very strong reputation with its suppliers. Capabilities PepsiCo as an organization, has survived strong competition from its more established rivals like The Coca Cola Company , Nestle among others due to the following capabilities that it has:  [v]   Muscular Global Brands and Consumer Goodwill Over the years, PepsiCo, with its portfolio of global brands, has built platforms for growth. Its highly focused portfolio offers many of the worlds best-known foods and beverages-brands of enduring appeal. The portfolio includes 15 brands that each generate more than $1 billion in annual retail sales. Thats more than any other food and beverage company. Pepsi leads the parade with $15.6 billion in annual sales. The company has been successful in entering into licensing ventures with other well-known names, such as Starbucks and Lipton, and has had huge success with global promotions by linking with globally recognized brands. Robust Technology/Manufacturing Platforms PepsiCos global brands are supported by sophisticated technology and manufacturing platforms. These platforms include the science of nutrition, food and beverages, process and manufacturing, and packaging. Each of PepsiCos divisions contributes to the knowledge and technology platforms, creating an institutional knowledge base that can be shared across divisions. Such sharing of best-practice knowledge creates a competitive advantage, because it allows PepsiCo to differentiate its products from competitors, and promotes innovation in products and processes. It is also a significant growth advantage: cross-fertilization between divisions allows for the creation of new products that can be brought to market. The various process and manufacturing platforms allow PepsiCo not only to improve existing products and packages, but also to create entirely new ones. Equally important, innovation gives retailers a great reason to feature products promin ently Global Footprint PepsiCo employs 137,000 people in 200 countries. Including the bottling system and other partners, it generates some $39 billion in revenues, of which 35% comes from outside North America. The company has nearly 700 manufacturing facilities worldwide, 2,100 distribution centers and 70,000 routes. In addition to its presence in North America, PepsiCo has leadership positions in Mexico, the U.K., and the Middle East. It is investing significantly in creating momentum in the critical emerging markets of China and India. In the Indian subcontinent, Pepsi Beverages International (PBI) has more than 45% market share of carbonated soft drinks (CSD). FLI also has a strong global presence, with sales in 44 countries supported by 71 manufacturing plants outside North America, as well as 62,000 associates and 22,000 routes outside North America. In many countries, it enjoys greater than 30% market share. While 61% of PepsiCos salty snack revenues come from North America, Latin America contributes 18% of revenues, Europe/Africa contributes 17%, and Asia contributes 4% Core Competencies PepsiCo enjoys the stature of the dominant force that it is in various segments of the food and beverage industry due to its famed distribution systems. PepsiCo goes to market through a distribution network of extraordinary strength and flexibility. This is a core competency as it satisfies all the four criteria of sustainable competitive advantage i.e., it is a valuable capability, rare, costly to imitate and non-substitutable. The reason why is it so is explained below. The goal of the distribution channel of PepsiCo is to put its products within easy reach of the consumer. Because practices and customs vary by market, and because retail customers have different needs, PepsiCo has several successful models for service that it uses around the world. Direct store delivery Direct store delivery (DSD) systems are at the heart of this network. Through these systems, PepsiCo takes its products directly to tens of thousands of distribution outlets, from the tiniest convenience stores to the largest warehouse outlets. Pepsi and its bottlers personally take products into stores and set them on the shelves, helping to ensure that products are fresh and that fragile items such as chips are handled with care. It also allows PepsiCo to merchandise its brands for maximum visibility and appeal. PepsiCos systems can move new products into national distribution quickly-sometimes as quickly as a week. And because representatives call on retail customers so frequently, they know very quickly how a new product is selling. At the same time, DSD provides financial benefits to retailers. Since Pepsi handles the products and merchandising, retailers save on labor. And because these products typically are sold and restocked every few days, while retailers pay for them on 30-day cycles, Pepsi adds to a stores cash flow. In fact, PepsiCo contributes more than any other manufacturer to the revenue growth, profit growth and cash flow of the big U.S. retailers. In international markets, PepsiCo is able to adapt its distribution to reap the benefits of traditional DSD-particularly the merchandising capabilities and the reach into many retail outlets-without the costs that would burden a young or subscale business. à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¢ Broker-Warehouse Distribution- For some of PepsiCos products, traditional broker warehouse distribution is more economical and just as effective as DSD. According to this system, third-party distributors move PepsiCos products to stores, and store employees stock the shelves. This system works best for non-impulse products such as Gatorade, Quaker Oats, Tropicana Twister, or Capn Crunch cereal, which are neither fragile nor highly perishable. PepsiCos merger with Quaker dramatically expanded the companys broker-warehouse distribution capabilities, adding the large and efficient warehouse system used for Quaker and Gatorade products. To leverage that strength, PepsiCo has combined that system with Tropicanas. Additionally, the Quaker-Gatorade system is used for certain Frito-Lay snacks that are better suited to warehouse distribution. Vending and Foodservice-Every year, consumers buy more snacks and beverages from vending machines and the foodservice companies that serve stadiums, office buildings, colleges, and similar venues. By combining the capabilities of Frito-Lay, Tropicana, and Quaker, it has created one of the biggest vending and foodservice sales forces in North America, a 600-person team that already generates well over $1 billion in annual sales.

Nursing Will Allow Me to Contribute to the Community Essay -- College

Nursing Will Allow Me to Contribute to the Community Jeffrey Hart in, â€Å"How to Get a College Education,† discusses the importance of knowing why students are taking certain courses. Not only does he discuss the reasons for choosing a major, but also the importance of their later careers once degrees have been obtained. Hart backs up one of his philosophy professor’s beliefs that â€Å"The goal of education is to produce the citizen† (129). With reference to this quote, one can question, â€Å"What is the job of the citizen?† A citizen’s job is to do whatever can be done to make the community a pleasant one. This can be done in a variety of ways such as through community service, which is important because it enhances the quality of the community as well as the people within it. Thus,â€Å"The citizen will, if need be, recreate his civilization† (Hart129). Therefore, through the nursing education I will receive at State University, I will be capable of giving back to the hospita l, that has given so much to the community, by helping the sick, old and young. The hospital is New Brunswick, Robert Wood Johnson University Hospital, where I aspire to work in future, and it is well known for its services to the community. Since university education â€Å"is the education which gives a man a clear conscious view of his own opinions and judgments, a truth in developing them, an eloquence in expressing them, and a force in urging them† (Newman 49), State will help me fit into Robert Wood Johnson which has taken on that responsibility to educate anyone who will take the opportunity. It offers a vast number of programs for the young and old to get involved to improve themselves and the community as a whole. A great example of these ... ...e good young men and women, decent human beings, who are compassionate, committed and dedicated to serving mankind and promoting better human relations and enrichment, and State University will do just that for me. Giving service to others not only touches the lives of those being helped, but also helps to build our character, to provide much needed interaction with others, and to improve the world in which we all live together. Works Cited Hart, Jeffrey. â€Å"How to Get a College Education.† The Presence of Others. 3rd ed. Ed. Andrea A. Lunsford and John J. Ruszkiewicz. New York: St. Martin’s, 2000. 126-131. Newman, Henry. â€Å"The Idea of a University.† The Presence of Others. 3rd ed. Ed. Andrea A. Lunsford and John J. Ruszkiewicz. New York: St. Martin’s, 2000. 46-49.

Saint Edmund (written From His View Point) :: essays research papers

  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Hi. My name is Edmund,now called Saint Edmund, the mart- yer. I was born in Surrey in 841. My mother was thought to have been royalty and my father died at a young age in was. When I was fourteen, I became the youngest King of the Anglo-Saxton Kingdom of East Anglia. When I first met King Offa, he was taken by my devout faith,sincerity, and virtues. He had no heirs and so he adopted me. Soon after, he died and I became king.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  The people of my kingdom thought I was sent from God because of Christianity. They thought I had come to rescue His faithful people and save them from poverty and dispair. I was marked from the start to become king and destined for sainthood. Because I sailed by boat to my new kingdom, the people thought I had come from a mysterious land of myth. I was their hero and savior. My reign as king saw a massive invasion of the Vikings, which I fought valiantly.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  The end was near, but I was not afraid. I beleived God was with me. My troops were defeated and I was taken prisioner by the Vikings, but I still did not lose my faith.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  On November 20, 870, the Danish leader,Ingwar, ordered his men to tie me to a tree and torture me, to denounce my God and my faith. They first stripped me of my royality. Surrounded by several groups of cheering, ugly men, they shot at me with arrows, whipped, and clubbed me. I did not waiver, but became stronger in my beleif in God and salvation. I would make the ultimate sacrifice for my God, a sacrifice of love and life, and so I prayed. The Danes soon tired of my undying faith and courage,and beheaded me. My body was to be tossed into the underbrush to be forgotten, but my head they continued to abuse because I would not say the words they wanted to hear.

Economic Interdependence

Economic Interdependence and War: A Theory of Trade Expectations Author(s): Dale C. Copeland Source: International Security, Vol. 20, No. 4 (Spring, 1996), pp. 5-41 Published by: The MIT Press Stable URL: http://www. jstor. org/stable/2539041 Accessed: 12/10/2010 13:07 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at http://www. jstor. org/page/info/about/policies/terms. jsp.JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at http://www. jstor. org/action/showPublisher? publisherCode=mitpress.Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email  protected] org.The MIT Press is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to International Security. http://www. jstor. org Economic DaleC. Copeland Interdependence and War A Theory of Trade Expectations Does economic inter- dependence increase or decrease the probability of war among states? With the Cold War over, this question is taking on importance as trade levels between established powers such as the United States and Russia and emerging powers such as Japan, China, and Western Europe grow to new heights.In this article, I provide a new dynamic theory to help overcome some of the theoretical and empirical problems with current liberal and realist views on the question. The prolonged debate between realists and liberals on the causes of war has been largely a debate about the relative salience of different causal variables. Realists stress such factors as relative power, while liberals focus on the absence or presence of collective security regimes and the pervasiveness of democratic communities. Economic interdependence is the only factor that plays an important causal role in the thinking of both camps, and their perspectives are diametrically opposed. Liberals argue that economic interdependence lowers the likelihood of war by increasing the value of trading over the alternative of aggression: interdependent states would rather trade than invade. As long as high levels of Dale C. Copelands AssistantProfessorn the Department f Governmentnd ForeignAffairsat the i i o a University f Virginia. oFor their helpful comments on previous drafts of this article, I w ould like to thank Robert Art, V. Natasha Copeland, Michael Desch, Angela Doll, John Duffield, Matthew Evangelista, Richard Falkenrath, James Fearon, Joseph Grieco, Atsushi Ishida, Irving Lachow, Alastair lain Johnston, Andrew Kydd, Jack Levy, Lisa Martin, Michael Mastanduno, John Mearsheimer, Andrew Moravcsik, John Owen, Paul Papayoanou, Stephen Rhoads, Gideon Rose, Richard Rosecrance, Len Schoppa, Herman Schwartz, Randall Schweller, Jitsuo Tsuchiyama, David Waldner, and Stephen Walt.This article also benefited from presentations at the Program on International Politics, Economics, and Security at the University of Chicago; the University of Virginia Department of Government's faculty workshop; the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, September 1995; the Olin security workshop at the Center for International Affairs, Harvard University; and the Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University (under whose auspices it was written). A ll errors remain mine. 1.For a summary of the causal variables in the two schools, see John J. Mearsheimer, â€Å"Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War,†InternationalSecurity, Vol. 15, No. 1 (Summer 1990), pp. 5-56; Robert 0. Keohane, â€Å"International Liberalism Reconsidered,† in John Dunn, ed. , The EconomicLimits to ModernPolitics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990), pp. 165-194. InternationalSecurity, Vol. 20, No. 4 (Spring 1996), pp. 5-41 ? 1996 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology InternationalSecurity 20:4 | 6 interdependence can be maintained, liberals assert, we have reason for optimism. Realists dismiss the liberal argument, arguing that high interdependence increases rather than decreases the probability of war. In anarchy, states must constantly worry about their security. Accordingly, interdependence-meaning mutual dependence and thus vulnerability-gives states an i ncentive to initiate war, if only to ensure continued access to necessary materials and goods.The unsatisfactory nature of both liberal and realist theories is shown by their difficulties in explaining the run-ups to the two World Wars. The period up to World War I exposes a glaring anomaly for liberal theory: the European powers had reached unprecedented levels of trade, yet that did not prevent them from going to war. Realists certainly have the correlation right-the war was preceded by high interdependence-but trade levels had been high for the previous thirty years; hence, even if interdependence was a necessary condition for the war, it was not sufficient.At first glance, the period from 1920 to 1940 seems to support liberalism over realism. In the 1920s, interdependence was high, and the world was essentially peaceful; in the 1930s, as entrenched protectionism caused interdependence to fall, international tension rose to the point of world war. Yet the two most aggressive stat es in the system during the 1930s, Germany and Japan, were also the most highly dependent despite their efforts towards autarchy, relying on other states, including other great powers, for critical raw materials.Realism thus seems correct in arguing that high dependence may lead to conflict, as states use war to ensure access to vital goods. Realism's problem with the interwar era, however, is that Germany and Japan had been even more dependent in the 1920s, yet they sought war only in the late 1930s when their dependence, although still significant, had fallen. The theory presented in this article-the theory of trade expectations-helps to resolve these problems.The theory starts by clarifying the notion of economic interdependence, fusing the liberal insight that the benefits of trade give states an incentive to avoid war with the realist view that the potential costs of being cut off can push states to war to secure vital goods. The total of the benefits and potential costs of tra de versus autarchy reveals the true level of dependence a state faces, for if trade is completely severed, the state not only loses the gains from trade but also suffers the costs of adjusting its economy to the new situation.Trade expectations theory introduces a new causal variable, the expectations of future trade, examining its impact on the overall expected value of the trading option if a state decides to forgo war. This supplements the static Economicnterdependence War| 7 and I consideration in liberalism and realism of the levels of interdependence at any point in time, with the importance of leaders' dynamic expectations into the future. Levels of interdependence and expectations of future trade, considered simultaneously, lead to new predictions.Interdependence can foster peace, as liberals argue, but this will only be so when states expect that trade levels will be high into the foreseeable future. If highly interdependent states expect that trade will be severely restric ted-that is, if their expectations for future trade are low-realists are likely to be right: the most highly dependent states will be the ones most likely to initiate war, for fear of losing the economic wealth that supports their long-term security. In short, high interdependence can be either peace-inducing or war-inducing, depending on the expectations of future trade.This dynamic perspective helps bridge the gaps within and between current approaches. Separating levels of interdependence from expectations of future trade indicates that states may be pushed into war even if current trade levels are high, if leaders have good reason to suspect that others will cut them off in the future. In such a situation, the expected value of trade will likely be negative, and hence the value of continued peace is also negative, making war an attractive alternative.This insight helps resolve the liberal problem with World War I: despite high trade levels in 1913-14, declining expectations for future trade pushed German leaders to attack, to ensure long-term access to markets and raw materials. Even when current trade is low or non-existent, positive expectations for future trade will produce a positive expected value for trade, and therefore an incentive for continued peace. This helps explain the two main periods of detente between the Cold War superpowers, from 1971 to 1973 and in the late 1980s: positive signs from U. S. eaders that trade would soon be significantly increased coaxed the Soviets into a more cooperative relationship, reducing the probability of war. But in situations of low trade where there is no prospect that high trade levels will be restored in the future, highly dependent states may be pushed into conflict. This was the German and Japanese dilemma before World War II. The article is divided into three sections. The first section reviews liberal and realist theories on the relationship between economic interdependence and the probability of war, and provides a critique of both theories.The second section lays out trade expectations theory The final section examines the diplomatic historical evidence for the new theory against two significant cases: Germany Internationalecurity20:4 | 8 S before World War I and Germany before World War II. The evidence indicates that the new variable, expectations of future trade, helps resolve the anomalies for current theories: in both cases, negative expectations for future trade, combined with high dependence, led leaders into total war out of fear for their long-term economic position and therefore security.TheLiberal nd RealistDebateon Economic nterdependence a I War and The core liberal position is straightforward. 2 Trade provides valuable benefits, or â€Å"gains from trade,† to any particular state. A dependent state should therefore seek to avoid war, since peaceful trading gives it all the benefits of close ties without any of the costs and risks of war. Trade pays more than w ar, so dependent states should prefer to trade not invade. This argument is often supported by the auxiliary proposition that modern technology greatly increases the costs and risks of aggression, making the trading option even more rational.The argument was first made popular in the 1850s by Richard Cobden, who asserted that free trade â€Å"unites† states, â€Å"making each equally anxious for the prosperity and happiness of both. â€Å"3 This view was restated in The GreatIllusion by Norman Angell just prior to World War I and again in 1933. Angell saw states having to choose between new ways of thinking, namely peaceful trade, and the â€Å"old method† of power politics. Even if war was once profitable, modernization now makes it impossible to â€Å"enrich† oneself through force; indeed, by destroying trading bonds, war is â€Å"commercially suicidal. 4 Why do wars nevertheless occur? While the start of World War I just after The GreatIllusion's initial p ublication might seem to refute his thesis, Angell in 2. Four other subsidiary liberal arguments, employing intervening variables, are not sufficiently compelling to discuss here. The first suggests that high trade levels promote domestic prosperity, thereby lessening the internal problems that push leaders into war. The second argues that interdependence helps to foster increased understanding between peoples, which reduces the misunderstandings that lead to war.The third asserts that trade alters the domestic structure of states, heightening the influence of groups with a vested interest in peaceful trade. The final argument contends that trade has the â€Å"spill-over† effect of increasing political ties between trading partners, thus improving the prospects for long-term cooperation. For an critical analysis of these views, see Dale Copeland, â€Å"Economic Interdependence and the Outbreak of War,†paper presented to University of Virginia Department of Government's faculty workshop, March 1995. 3. Richard Cobden, The Political Writings of Richard Cobden (London: T.Fischer Unwin, 1903), p. 225. 4. Norman Angell, The GreatIllusion, 2d ed. (New York: G. P Putnam's Sons, 1933), pp. 33, 59-60, 87-89. Economicnterdependence WarI 9 I and the 1933 edition argued that the debacle simply confirmed the unprofitability of modern wars. He thus upheld the common liberal view that wars, especially major wars, result from the misperceptions of leaders caught up in the outmoded belief that war still pays. Accordingly, his is â€Å"not a plea for the impossibility of war †¦ but for its futility,† since â€Å"our ignorance on this matter makes war not only possible, but extremely likely. 5 In short, if leaders fail to see how unprofitable war is compared to the benefits of trade, they may still erroneously choose the former. Richard Rosecrance provides the most extensive update of the CobdenAngell thesis to the nuclear era. States must choose betwe en being â€Å"trading states,† concerned with promoting wealth through commerce, and â€Å"territorial states,† obsessed with military expansion. Modern conditions push states towards a predominantly trading mode: wars are not only too costly, but with the peaceful trading option, â€Å"the benefits that one nation gains from trade can also be realized by others. When the system is highly interdependent, therefore, the â€Å"incentive to wage war is absent,† since â€Å"trading states recognize that they can do better through internal economic development sustained by a worldwide market for their goods and services than by trying to conquer and assimilate large tracts of land. â€Å"6 Rosecrance thus neatly summarizes the liberal view that high interdependence fosters peace by making trading more profitable than invading. 7 5. Ibid. , pp. 59-62, 256. i S a 6. RichardRosecrance,TheRise of the Trading tate:Commercend Conquestn the ModernWorld (New York: Basic Books, 1986), pp. 3-14; 24-25 (emphasis added); see also Rosecrance, â€Å"War, a Trade and Interdependence,† in James N. Rosenau and Hylke Tromp, eds. , Interdependence nd Conflict in WorldPolitics (Aldershot, U. K. : Avebury, 1989), pp. 48-57; Rosecrance, â€Å"A New Concert of Powers,† Foreign Affairs, Vol. 71, No. 2 (Spring 1992), pp. 64-82. 7. A book often seen as a statement on the peace-inducing effects of interdependence-Robert 0. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye, Power and Interdependence(Boston: Little, Brown, 1977)-actually contains no such causal argument. For Keohane and Nye, â€Å"complex interdependence† is more peaceful by definition: it is a valuable concept for analyzing the political process† only when military force is â€Å"unthinkable† (pp. 29, 24). In the second edition: â€Å"since we define complex interdependence in terms of [policy] goals and instruments,† arguments â€Å"about how goals and instruments are affected by th e degree to which a situation approximates complex interdependence or realism will be tautological. † Thus, â€Å"we are left essentially with two dependent variables: changes in agendas and changes in the roles of international organizations. † Keohane and Nye, Power and Interdependence, d ed. (Glenview, Ill. Scott, Foresman, 1989), p. 255; emphasis in original. 2 The dependent variable of this article-the likelihood of war-is nowhere to be found, which is not surprising, since it is assumed away. Other works on interdependence from the 1970s, which largely examined dependent variables other than war, are discussed in Copeland, â€Å"Economic Interdependence and the Outbreak of War. † InternationalSecurity 20:4 | 10 Realists turn the liberal argument on its head, arguing that economic interdependence not only fails to promote peace, but in fact heightens the likelihood of war. States concerned about security will dislike dependence, since it means that crucial i mported goods could be cut off during a crisis. This problem is particularly acute for imports like oil and raw materials; while they may be only a small percentage of the total import bill, without them most modern economies would collapse. Consequently, states dependent on others for vital goods have an increased incentive to go to war to assure themselves of continued access of supply. Neorealist Kenneth Waltz puts the argument as follows: actors within a domestic polity have little reason to fear the dependence that goes with specialization.The anarchic structure of international politics, however, makes states worry about their vulnerability, thus compelling them â€Å"to control what they depend on or to lessen the extent of their dependency. † For Waltz, it is this â€Å"simple thought† that explains, among other things, â€Å"their imperial thrusts to widen the scope of their control. â€Å"9 For John Mearsheimer, nations that â€Å"depend on others for crit ical economic supplies will fear cutoff or blackmail in time of crisis or war. † Consequently, â€Å"they may try to extend political control to the source of supply, giving rise to conflict with the source or with its other customers. Interdependence, therefore, â€Å"will probably lead to greater security competition. â€Å"10 8. One might contend that realists doubt the causal importance of economic interdependence, since relative gains concerns convince great powers to avoid becoming dependent in the first place. Aside from arguments showing why states may cooperate despite concerns for relative gains (see essays by Powell, Snidal, and Keohane in David A. Baldwin, ed. , Neorealismand Neoliberalism:The Contemporary ebate [New York: Columbia University Press, 1993]; Dale Copeland, â€Å"Why Relative DGains Concerns May Promote Economic Cooperation: A Realist Explanation for Great Power Interdependence,† presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies A ssociation, San Diego, April 1996), the argument is empirically false. Periods of high interdependence have arisen even when the security competition between great powers was particularly intense, such as from 1880 to 1914, as Waltz acknowledges. Kenneth Waltz, â€Å"The Myth of Interdependence,† in Ray Maghoori and Bennett Ramberg, Globalism versus Realism (Boulder, Colo. : Westview Press, 1982), p. 83.Since the reality of high interdependence cannot be argued or assumed away, I focus here on the core realist claim that whenever high levels of interdependence are reached, for whatever reason, war is more likely. 9. Kenneth Waltz, Theory of InternationalPolitics (New York: Random House, 1979), p. 106. 10. John J. Mearsheimer, â€Å"Disorder Restored,† in Graham Allison and Gregory F Treverton, eds. , Rethinking America's Security (New York: W. W. Norton, 1992), p. 223; Mearsheimer, â€Å"Back to the Future,† p. 45. See also Robert Gilpin, â€Å"Economic Interde pendence and National Security in Historical Perspective,† in Klaus Knorr and Frank N.Trager, eds. , Economic Issues and National Security (Lawrence, Kan. : Allen, 1977), p. 29. Adopting the realist argument, but emphasizing how dependence leads states to adopt destabilizing offensive strategies, is Anne Uchitel, â€Å"Interdepend- Economicnterdependence War| 11 and I This modern realist understanding of economic interdependence and war finds its roots in mercantilist writings dating from the seventeenth century Mercantilists saw states as locked in a competition for relative power and for the wealth that underpins that power. For mercantilists, imperial expansionthe acquisition of colonies-is driven by the state's need to secure greater control over sources of supply and markets for its goods, and to build relative power in the process. By allowing the metropole and the colonies to specialize in production and trade of complementary products (particularly manufactured goods for raw materials), while ensuring political control over the process, colonies â€Å"opened up the possibility of providing a system of supply within a self-contained empire. â€Å"‘2 In this, we see the underpinning for the neorealist view that interdependence leads to war.Mercantilist imperialism represents a reaction to a state's dependence; states reduce their fears of external specialization by increasing internal specialization within a now larger political realm. The imperial state as it expands thus acquires more and more of the characteristics of Waltz's domestic polity, with its hierarchy of specialized functions secure from the unpredictable policies of others. In sum, realists seek to emphasize one main point: political concerns driven by anarchy must be injected into the liberal calculus.Since states must be primarily concerned with security and therefore with control over resources and markets, one must discount the liberal optimism that great trading partners will always continue to be great trading partners simply because both states benefit absolutely. Accordingly, a state vulnerable to another's policies because of dependence will tend to use force to overcome that vulnerability. ence and Instability,† in Jack Snyder and Robert Jervis, eds. , Coping with Complexityin the International System (Boulder, Colo. : Westview Press, 1993), pp. 43-264. For Barry Buzan, since liberal free-trading systems are dependent on a hegemon which invariably declines, such systems are destined to fall into â€Å"malevolent† mercantilist practices, as states scramble to control access to goods formerly safeguarded by the hegemon. Avoiding the liberal system altogether, through a â€Å"benign† mercantilist system of self-sufficient trading blocs, will be therefore preferred. Buzan, â€Å"Economic Structure and International Security: The Limits of the Liberal Case,† International Organization, Vol. 8, No. 4 (Autumn 1984), esp. pp . 597, 609-623. For a similar argument, see Robert Gilpin, U. S. Power and the Multinational Corporation(New York: Basic Books), 1975, p. 259. 11. See Eli F Heckscher, Mercantilism, vol. 2, trans. Mendel Shapiro (London: George Allen, 1931), p. 15; Jacob Viner, â€Å"Power Versus Plenty as Objectives of Foreign Policy in the Seventeenth and Eighteenth Centuries,† World Politics, Vol. 1, No. 1 (October 1948), p. 10; David A. Baldwin, Economic Statecraft(Princeton, N. J. : Princeton University Press, 1985), chap. . 12. Heckscher, Mercantilism, vol. 2, p. 40. InternationalSecurity 20:4 | 12 A COMPARISON OF THE LIBERAL AND REALIST PERSPECTIVES While the liberal and the realist arguments display critical differences, they possess one important similarity: the causal logic of both perspectives is founded on an individual state's decision-making process. That is, while the two camps freely use the term â€Å"interdependence,† both derive predictions from with their own specif ic how particular decision-making units-states-deal dependence.This allows both theories to handle situations of â€Å"asymmetric interdependence,† where one state in a dyad is more dependent than the other. Their predictions are internally consistent, but opposed: liberals argue that the more dependent state is less likely to initiate conflict, since it has more to lose from breaking economic ties;13 realists maintain that this state is more likely to initiate conflict, to escape its vulnerability. The main difference between liberals and realists has to do with their emphasis on the benefits versus the costs of interdependence.The realist argument highlights an aspect that is severely downplayed in the liberal argument, namely, consideration of the potential costs from the severing of a trading relationship. Most liberals, if pressed, would probably accept David Baldwin's conceptualization of dependence as the opportunity costs a state would experience should trade end. Yet Baldwin's opportunity costs are only the loss of the benefits from trade received after a state moves from autarchy. 14 It is this understanding of opportunity costs that is followed in the most comprehensive liberal argument for interdependence and peace, that of Rosecrance.There is little sense in Rosecrance's work that a state's decision to specialize and thus to restructure its economy radically can entail huge â€Å"costs of adjustment† should trade be later severed, nor that such costs can actually put the state in a far worse position than if it had never moved from autarchy in the first place. 15 This is the concern of realists when they talk about dependence on 13. See Keohane and Nye, â€Å"World Politics and the International Economic System,† in C. Fred Bergsten, ed. , The Future of the InternationalEconomicOrder (Lexington: D. C.Heath, 1973), pp. 121122; Neil R. Richardson and Charles W. Kegley, â€Å"Trade Dependence and Foreign Policy Compliance,† International Studies Quarterly,Vol. 24, No. 2 (June 1980), pp. 191-222. 14. David A. Baldwin, â€Å"Interdependence and Power: A Conceptual Analysis,† International Organization, Vol. 34, No. 4 (Autumn 1980), pp. 478, 482-484, 489; Baldwin, â€Å"The Power of Positive Sanctions,† WorldPolitics, Vol. 24, No. 1 (October 1971), pp. 19-38; Albert 0. Hirschman, National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade,exp. ed. (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1980), chap. . 15. On the costs of adjustment, see Ruth Arad, Seev Hirsch, and Alfred Tovias, The Economicsof Peacemaking(New York: St. Martin's Press, 1983), pp. 26-34. Keohane and Nye examine the â€Å"costs of adjusting† as an integral part of â€Å"vulnerability† interdependence (Power and Interdependence, p. 13). Yet they do not establish the original autarchic position as a baseline for examining these costs independently from the benefits of trade forgone; this baseline is incorporated later i n EconomicInterdependence nd War | 13 a â€Å"vital goods† such as oil.A state that chooses not to buy oil from outsiders forgoes certain benefits of trade, but by operating on domestic energy sources, it avoids the heavy penalty experienced by a state that does base its industrial structure on imported oil, only to find itself cut off from supplies. That Rosecrance minimizes this realist concern is evident. In an explicit effort to refute Waltz's definition of interdependence as â€Å"a trading link which ‘is costly to break',† Rosecrance contends that â€Å"to measure interdependence in this way misses the essence of the concept. His subsequent discussion emphasizes only the benefits that states give up if they choose not to trade (his â€Å"opportunity costs†), and makes no mention of any potentially severe costs of adjustment. In fact, he argues that dependence on such things as foreign sources of energy is really no different than relying on outsider s for â€Å"fashions† or different makes of cars; if trade is cut off, a state loses only â€Å"consumer choice. † Recognition that the whole industrial structure of a state might be undermined or destroyed by an adversary's severing of vital trade is absent. 6 Rosecrance is reluctant to acknowledge realist concerns, perhaps because to do so would imply that dependent states might be more willing to go to war, as realists maintain, while Rosecrance is arguing that they are less willing to do so. 17 This points to a critical distinction between liberalism and realism that illuminates the liberal understanding of why wars ultimately occur. For liberals, interdependence does not have a downside that might push states into war, as realists contend. Rather, interdependence is seen to operate as a restraint on aggressive tendencies arising from the domestic or individual levels.If interdependence becomes low, this restraint is taken away, allowing the aggressive tendencies t o dominate. To borrow a metaphor from Plato: for liberals, inter- building the new theory. Liberals also consider â€Å"costs† in terms of losses in â€Å"autonomy† due to trade ties; see Richard N. Cooper, The Economicsof Interdependence New York:McGraw Hill, 1968), ( pp. 4-12; Rosecrance, Rise of the TradingState, pp. 39-41, 235. Note, however, that these are costs that go hand in hand with high trade, not costs that are experienced if trade is cut off.Hence, these losses in autonomy are more accurately considered as a form of sensitivity interdependencecosts incurred when trade is ongoing-rather than as a form of â€Å"vulnerability† interdependence so worrying to realists. On this, see Keohane and Nye, â€Å"International Interdependence and Integration,† in Fred I. Greenstein and Nelson W. Polsby, eds. , Handbook of Political Science, vol. 8 (Reading, Mass. : Addison-Wesley, 1975), pp. 368-370. 16. Rosecrance, Rise of the Trading State, pp. 144-145. In the appendix, an iterated prisoner's dilemma is used to show the â€Å"concrete benefits† from trade cooperation.If states decide not to cooperate, they simply â€Å"[do] not benefit†; pp. 233-236. 17. Rosecrance occasionally seems to accept that some goods are more vital than others, but even here he reiterates the liberal argument: â€Å"Countries dependent on the world economy for markets, assistance, and critical raw materials are doubly hesitant to embark on military adventures†; ibid. , p. 133, emphasis added. InternationalSecurity 20:4 | 14 dependence operates like the reins on the dark horse of inner passions; it provides a material incentive to stay at peace, even when there are internal predispositions towards aggression.Remove the reins, however, and these passions are free to roam as they will. 18 This point becomes clearer as one examines Rosecrance's explanations for the two World Wars. World War II, for Rosecrance, was ultimately domestically d riven. The main aggressors saw war as a means to cope with the upheavals flowing from â€Å"social discontent and chaos† and the â€Å"danger of left-wing revolutions†; given these upheavals, it is â€Å"not surprising that the territorial and military-political system [i. e. , war] emerged as an acceptable alternative to more than one state. Connecting the Second World War to causes arising from the unit level in the First World War,he continues: â€Å"If Germany, Italy, and Japan did not fulfill their territorial ambitions at the end of World War I, they might develop even more nationalistic and solidaristic regimes and try again. â€Å"19With trade and therefore interdependence at low levels in the 1930s, â€Å"economics offered no alternative possibility†; it failed to provide what he later refers to as a â€Å"mitigat[ing]† or â€Å"restraining† influence on unit-level motives for war. 0 World War I is a problematic case for Rosecrance, as it was for Angell, since the great powers went to war even though trade levels were still high. Like Angell, Rosecrance's main defense of liberalism is that leaders simply did not see how beneficial interdependence was, and how costly war would be. Due to outmoded ideas and unit-level pathologies, they misperceived the situation; hence, interdependence could not operate as it should, as a restraint on aggression. He talks about leaders' obsession with â€Å"nationalist ambitions† and â€Å"balance of power politics. He suggests that â€Å"no pre-1914 statesman or financier was fully aware of the damage that war would do to the European body economic† because of the irrational belief that â€Å"[war] would be over very 18. See Plato's Phaedrus in Phaedrus and Letters VII and VIII, trans. Walter Hamilton (Harmondsworth: Penguin, 1973), sections 246-256. The historical roots of this view are explicated in f b i P Albert 0. Hirschman,The Passionsand the Interests: olitic alArgumentsor Capitalism efore ts Triumph(Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1977).He quotes Montesquieu (ibid. , p. 73): â€Å"It is fortunate for men to be in a situation in which, though their passions may prompt them to be wicked, they have nevertheless an interest in not being so. † 19. Rosecrance, Rise of the TradingState, pp. 102-103 (see also p. 111). Rosecrance does point out that Germany and Japan apparently went to war also to gain raw materials (ibid. , p. 108). He does not argue, however, that these two states were more dependent than other states for such materials; to have done so would suggest the validity of the realist logic. 0. See ibid. , pp. 106, 123, 150, 162. EconomicInterdependence nd War | 15 a quickly. â€Å"21At one point, he even seems to cast doubt on the efficacy of interdependence as a restraint on aggression: One should not place too much emphasis upon the existence of interdependence per se. European nations in 1913 relied upon the trade and investment that flowed between them; that did not prevent the political crisis which led to †¦ World War I. Interdependence only constrains national policy if leaders accept and agree to work within its limits. 22It thus appears that Rosecrance cannot really envision interdependence as being anything but a â€Å"constraint† or â€Å"restraint† on unit-level tendencies to aggress. This view is consistent with the general liberal perspective that all wars are ultimately driven by unit-level phenomena such as misperceptions, authoritarianism, ideology, and internal social conflict. Rosecrance's historical understanding of the World War II, for example, would fit nicely with the â€Å"democratic peace† literature: had all the states in 1939 been democratic, war would probably ot have occurred despite the disrupted global economic situation, but since some states were not democratic, their aggressive domestic forces became unfettered once interdependence had declined. The idea that economic factors by themselves can push states to aggress-an argument consistent with neorealism and the alternative theory I will present below-is outside the realm of liberal thought, since it would imply that purely systemic forces can be responsible for war, largely regardless of unit-level phenomena. 3 While liberal theory certainly downplays the realist concern for the potential costs of severed trade, it is also clear that realists slight the positive role the benefits of trade can have on a state's choice between peace and war. In the next section, I bring together the liberal emphasis on benefits with the realist emphasis on costs to create a framework for understanding the true level of dependence a state faces. This section also seeks to correct the most significant 21. See ibid. , pp. 18-19, 88, 96-97, 99, 150. 22. Ibid. , p. 141 (see also p. 150).The argument here borders on being non-falsifiable: disconfirming cases where war occurs despite hig h interdependence can be sidestepped by saying simply that states did not â€Å"accept† being peaceful traders. Note as well that if states have already decided to be peaceful, then interdependence is not needed as a restraint. 23. On liberalism's inherently unit-level orientation to conflict, see Andrew Moravcsik, â€Å"Liberalism and International Relations Theory,† Working Paper, Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, 1992; Michael Howard, War and the LiberalConscience (New Brunswick: Rutgers University Press, 1978).On the democratic peace argument, see Bruce Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993). InternationalSecurity 20:4 | 16 error in both liberal and realist theories, namely, their lack of theoretical attention to the dynamics of state expectations for the future. o Trade r Invade? A Theory f Trade xpectations E o This section introduces the theory of trade expectations.This theory extends liberal and realist views regarding interdependence and war, by synthesizing their strengths while formulating a dynamic perspective on state decision-making that is at best only implicit in current approaches. The strength of liberalism lies in its consideration of how the benefits or gains from trade give states a material incentive to avoid war, even when they have unit-level predispositions to favor it. The strength of realism is its recognition that states may be vulnerable to the potential costs of being cut off from trade on which they depend for wealth and ultimately security.Current theories, however, lack a way to fuse the benefits of trade and the costs of severed trade into one theoretical framework. More significantly, these theories lack an understanding of how rational decision-makers incorporate the future trading environment into their choice between peace and war. Both liberalism and realism often refer to the future trading environment, particularly in empirical analyses. Bu t in constructing a theoretical logic, the two camps consider the future only within their own ideological presuppositions.Liberals, assuming that states seek to maximize absolute welfare, maintain that situations of high trade should continue into the foreseeable future as long as states are rational; such actors have no reason to forsake the benefits from trade, especially if defection from the trading arrangement will only lead to retaliation. 24 Given this presupposition, liberals can argue that interdependence-as reflected in high trade at any particular moment in time-will foster peace, given the benefits of trade over war.Realists, assuming states seek to maximize security, argue that concerns for relative power and autonomy will eventually push some states to sever trade ties (at least in the absence of a hegemon). Hence, realists can insist that interdependence, again manifest as high trade at any moment in time, drives dependent states to initiate war now to escape potenti al vulnerability later. For the purposes of forging strong theories, however, trading patterns cannot be simply assumed a priori to match the stipulations of either liberalism or of realism.Trade levels fluctuate significantly over time, both for the system as a 24. See Rosecrance, Rise of the TradingState, appendix. EconomicInterdependence nd War | 17 a whole and particularly between specific trading partners, as the last two centuries demonstrate. Accordingly, we need a theory that incorporates how a state's expectations of its trading environment-either optimistic or pessimistic-affect its decision-calculus for war or peace. This is where the new theory makes its most significant departure.Liberalism and realism are theories of â€Å"comparative statics,† drawing predictions from a snapshot of the level of interdependence at a single point in time. The new theory, on the other hand, is dynamic in its internal structure: it provides a new variable, the â€Å"expectations o f future trade,† that incorporates in the theoretical logic an actor's sense of the future trends and possibilities. 25 This variable is essential to any leader's determination not just of the immediate value of peace versus war at a particular moment in time, but of the overall expected value of peace and war over the foreseeable future.From consideration of the expectations-of-future-trade variable along with a state's level of dependence, one can derive a consistent deductive theory of state decision-making showing the conditions under which high interdependence will lead to peace or to war. High interdependence can be peace-inducing, as liberals maintain, as long as states expect future trade levels to be high in the future: positive expectations for future trade will lead dependent states to assign a high expected value to a continuation of peaceful trade, making war the less appealing option.If, however, a highly dependent state expects future trade to be low due to the policy decisions of the other side, then realists are likely to be correct: the state will attach a low or even negative expected value to continued peace without trade, making war an attractive alternative if its expected value is greater than peace. Moreover, since a negative expected value of trade implies a long-term decline in power, even if war is not profitable per se, it may be chosen as the lesser of two evils. 26 5. On the differences between comparative statics and dynamic analyses that incorporate the future, see Eugene Silberberg, The Structure of Economics, 2d ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1990), chaps. 1, 12, and 18. 26. That is, war is rational if it has either a higher net positive value or a lower net negative value. The theory thus works regardless of whether states are innately â€Å"greedy†-seeking positive gains from war-or simply security-seekers desiring to minimize long-term threats. See Charles L.Glaser, â€Å"Political Consequences of Military Strate gy: Expanding and Refining the Spiral and Deterrence Models,† WorldPolitics, Vol. 44, No. 4 (July 1992), pp. 497-538. By connecting the trading environment to fears about relative decline, I draw upon the notion that declining states launch preventive wars to uphold their waning security. Elsewhere, I build a solely power-driven theory showing why states faced with deep and inevitable decline initiate major wars. Dale Copeland, â€Å"Neorealism and the Myth of Bipolar Stability: Toward a New Dynamic Realist Theory of Major War,† Security Studies, Vol. , No. 3 (Spring 1996). S 2 International ecurity 0:4 | 18 The deductive logic of the alternative theory, as with liberalism and realism, centers on an individual state's efforts to manage its own situation of dependence. Consider a two-actor scenario, where one state â€Å"A† may trade with another state â€Å"B. † If state A moves away from the initial position of autarchy to begin trading, and trade is free and open, it will expect to receive the benefits of trade stressed by liberals, namely, the incremental increase in A's total welfare due to trade. 7 Note that a state can still be aware of the â€Å"benefits of trade† even if present trade is non-existent, since they represent the potential gains from trade that would accrue to the state should trade levels become high in the future. 28It is a state's ability to foresee future potential benefits that allows it to attach a high expected value to the peaceful trading option even when current trade levels are low (as long as it expects current restrictions to be relaxed). When a state trades, it specializes in and exports goods in which it enjoys a comparative advantage, while forgoing the production of other goods, which it then imports.This process of specialization, however, entails potentially large costs of adjustment if trade is subsequently cut off. This is especially so in the modern world if the state becomes dependen t on foreign oil and certain raw materials. With the economy's capital infrastructure (machines, factories, transportation systems, etc. ) geared to function only with such vital goods, a severing of trade would impose huge costs as the economy struggles to cope with the new no-trade situation. 29 In short, the severing of trade, as realists would argue, would put the state in a situation far worse than if it had never specialized in the first place.This analysis leads to a clearer understanding of any particular state's total level of â€Å"dependence. † On a bilateral basis, that level is represented by the sum of the benefits that the state would receive from free and open trade with another state (versus autarchy), and the costs to the state of being cut off from that trade after having specialized (versus autarchy). If state A started with an economy of 100 units of GNP before any trade with B (the autarchic position), and open trade with B would mean economic expansion to a level of 110 units of GNP on an ongoing basis, then the â€Å"benefits of trade† could be considered as 10 units.If the specialization that trade entails, however, would mean the 27. This is consistent with standard trade theory. See Richard E. Caves and Ronald W. Jones, World Tradeand Payments, 4th ed. (Boston: Little Brown, 1985), chaps. 3-4. 28. I thank Andrew Moravcsik for discussions on the potential benefits of trade. 29. The capital investments represent â€Å"sunk costs† not easily recouped. See Arad, Hirsch, and Tovias, The Economicsof Peacemaking,pp. 26-28. EconomicInterdependence nd War I 19 a conomy would fall to 85 units should B sever trade ties, then the â€Å"costs of severed trade† would be 15 units versus autarchy. State A's total dependence level would thus be the benefits of trade plus the costs of severed trade after specialization, or 25 units. The dependence level will itself be a function of such parameters as the overall compatibili ties of the two economies for trade, the degree of A's need for vital goods such as oil and raw materials, and the availability of alternative suppliers and markets.Thus if A's need for trade with B is great because the economies are highly compatible (say, in terms of mutual comparative advantages), B has valuable natural resources that A lacks, and A has few other countries to turn to, then A's dependence can be considered high. 30 In deciding between peace and war, however, a state can not refer simply to its dependence level. Rather, it must determine the overall expected value of trade and therefore the value of continued peace into the foreseeable future.The benefits of trade and the costs of severed trade on their own say nothing about this expected value. Dynamic expectations of future trade must be brought in. If the state has positive expectations that the other will maintain free and open trade over the long term, then the expected value of trade will be close to the valu e of the benefits of trade. On the other hand, if the state, after having specialized, comes to expect that trade will be severed by the trading partner, then the expected value of trade may be highly negative, that is, close to the value of the costs of severed trade.In essence, the expected value of trade may be anywhere between the two extremes, depending on a state's estimate of the expected probability of securing open trade, or of being cut off. 31 This leads to a crucial hypothesis. For any given expected value of war, we can predict that the lower the expectations of future trade, the lower the 30. On the importance of altematives, see Baldwin, â€Å"Interdependence and Power,† p. 482; Keohane and Nye, Power and Interdependence, . 13. It is worth remembering that alternative suppliers p nd markets are only valuable in reducing A's dependence if A can get access to them. If B is able not only to sever bilateral trade, but also to blockade A to prevent third-party tradi ng, then A effectively has no alternatives and is therefore dependent. This was the situation for Japan vis-a-vis the United States before 1941 regarding oil imports. 31. This line of reasoning is developed formally in Dale Copeland, â€Å"Modelling Economic Interdependence and War: A Theory of Trade Expectations,† paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, September 1995.It is consistent with consideration of the â€Å"probability of transaction† as a determinant of expected national income in Arad, Hirsch, and Tovias, The Economicof Peacemaking,pp. 37-43, although they do not employ expectations of future trade as a theoretical variable affecting the likelihood of war. InternationalSecurity 20:4 | 20 expected value of trade, and therefore the more likely it is that war will be chosen. It is important to note that the expected value of trade will not be based on the level of trade at a particular moment in time, but u pon the stream of expected trade levels into the future.It really does not matter that trade is high today: if state A knows that B will cut all trade tomorrow and shows no signs of being willing to restore it later, the expected value of trade would be negative. Similarly, it does not matter if there is little or no trade at present: if state A is confident that B is committed to freer trade in the future, the expected value of trade would be positive. The fact that the expected value of trade can be negative even if present trade is high, due to low expectations for future trade, goes a long way towards resolving such manifest anomalies for liberal theory as German aggression in World War I.Despite high levels of trade up to 1914, German leaders had good reason to believe that the other great powers would undermine this trade into the future; hence, a war to secure control over raw materials and markets was required for the long-term security of the German nation. Since the expect ed value of trade can be positive even though present trade is low, due to high expectations for future trade, we can also understand such phenomena as the periods of detente in U. S. -Soviet relations during the Cold War (1971-73 and after 1985).While East-West trade was still relatively low during these times, the Soviet need for Western technology, combined with a growing belief that large increases in trade with the West would be forthcoming, gave the Soviets a high enough expected value of trade to convince them to be more accommodating in superpower relations. 32 In making the final decision between peace and war, however, a rational state will have to compare the expected value of trade to the expected value of going to war with the other state. The expected value of war, as a realist would emphasize, cannot be ascertained without considering the relative power balance.As one state moves from a position of relative inferiority in economic and military power to relative superi ority, the expected value of war will move from negative to positive or even highly positive. This proposition follows directly from the insights of deterrence theory: the larger the state in relative size, the higher the probability of winning a victory, while the lower the costs of fighting the war. 33 32. The U. S. -Soviet Cold War case is covered in Copeland, â€Å"Modelling Economic Interdependence and War. † 33. See Alexander L.George and Richard Smoke, Deterrencein AmericanForeign Policy: Theoryand Practice (New York: Columbia University Press, 1974), chaps. 2-3. a EconomicInterdependence nd War | 21 Hence, if victory entails occupying the other state and absorbing its economy, war can take on a very positive expected value when a large power attacks a small state. 34 For example, if Iraq had been allowed to hold on to Kuwait after its August 1990 invasion, war for Iraq would certainly have â€Å"paid. † Similarly, Czechoslovakia was an easy and attractive targe t for Germany by 1938-39, as were the other smaller states of Europe, nd evidence suggests that war against these nations was indeed profitable for the Nazis. 35 On the other hand, war between more equal great powers is likely to have a much lower or even negative expected value. The Spartan leadership took Sparta into war against Athens in 431 BC, for example, under no illusions that war would be a profitable venture. 36 While the Athenian economy presented a large prize should victory be attained, war with a near-equal adversary could be expected to be very costly, with a low likelihood of victory.Where we would anticipate a low or negative expected value to the option of war, the expectations-of-future-trade variable should have a determinant effect on the likelihood of war. If state A has positive expectations for future trade with B, and A and B are roughly equal in relative power, then state A will assign a high expected value to continued peaceful trade, will compare this to the low or negative expected value for invasion, and will choose peace as the rational strategy.The higher A's dependence and the higher the expectations for future trade, the higher the expected value for peaceful trade, and therefore the more likely A is to avoid war. But if state A is dependent and has negative expectations for future trade with B, then the expected value of trade will be very low or negative. If the expected value for trade is lower than the expected value for invasion, war becomes the rational choice, and this is so even when the expected value of invasion is itself negative: war becomes the lesser of two evils. 7 34. This is developed formally in Copeland, â€Å"Modelling Economic Interdependence and War. † 35. See Peter Liberman, â€Å"Does Conquest Pay? The Exploitation of Occupied Industrial Economies† (Ph. D. diss. , Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1991). 36. Thucydides, The Peloponnesian War,trans. Rex Warner (Harmondsworth: Penguin, 1954), Book 1, lines 80-88. 37. When one state is very large and the other very small, it is harder to sort out the effects of interdependence from the effects of relative power, at least in actual cases of war.The expected value of war for the superior state is likely to be quite positive anyway, and thus will tend to overshadow the expected value of trade even when the state has positive expectations of future trade. Here, the superior state simply chooses war as the â€Å"greater of two goods. † This choice would not be altered by any diminution of trade expectations; indeed, war would simply be even more rational as the expected value of trade (and therefore peace) falls.War in such a situation of marked power imbalance and low expectations of future trade is thus overdetermined; it would be difficult to tell whether war occurred because of the positive expected value of war, the negative expected value of trade, or both. Thus, in my empirical analysis, I examine cases wh ere great powers InternationalSecurity 20:4 | 22 Until now, I have talked about state A's â€Å"expectations of future trade† as though they were an essentially exogenous, that is, as though state B, in its willingness to trade with A, were not affected by A's behavior.If, however, state A, by making political, military, or economic concessions, can induce B to relax trading restrictions, then A's low expectations for future trade may be raised. This suggests that the effects of diplomacy and bargaining need to be integrated into any extended historical analysis. 38 The probability of B trading with A is never completely independent of A's actions, since there is always some concession that A could make to get B to commit to higher trade levels over the long term.But the problem for A is that B's price for high trade may be unacceptable in that it undermines A's internal stability or its external power position. To take an extreme example, if B were to demand, as the price fo r higher trade, that A unilaterally disarm and allow B to occupy A with its army, it is hard to imagine A accepting such a deal. If B remains unwilling to budge from such an exorbitant demand, then it is fair to say that A's pessimistic expectation for future trade is exogenous; there is little A can do, short of national suicide, to improve the likelihood of trade.Thus state A, in estimating B's probability of trading with A, will refer to many indicators suggesting how â€Å"reasonable† B will be into the future, that is, how willing B will be to trade, and at what price. One may think of these indicators simply as causal factors affecting the variable â€Å"expectations of future trade. † Such systemic factors as B's economic competitiveness, B's rate of depletion of raw materials and energy reserves (affecting its future export ability), and military pressures constraining B's trade with A will be important.German leaders before World War I, for example, had good r eason to believe that Britain would be forced to move to imperial preference to protect its empire from the German economic challenge and to lend support to its entente partners. Japanese leaders in the late 1930s recognized that the United States would have to cut back on oil and iron exports to Japan as U. S. reserves were attacked great powers in long and costly total wars. While these cases do not cover the universe of wars, they do isolate the role of economic interdependence and changing expectations of future trade in the outbreak of war. 8. Given space constraints, my case studies in this article do not provide a full analysis of the bargaining dynamic. For an analysis of interstate economic bargaining, see Baldwin, Economic Statecraft,chap. 6; R. Harrison Wagner, â€Å"Economic Interdependence, Bargaining Power, and Political Influence,† InternationalOrganization,Vol. 42, No. 3 (Summer 1988), pp. 461-483. Note also that there may be a causal feedback loop, whereby in creasing fears of war lead others to reduce trade, which in turn heightens the incentive of dependent states to initiate war.These and other issues involving the endogeneity of trade expectations are addressed more fully in my book manuscript, â€Å"Economic Interdependence and War. † EconomicInterdependence nd War | 23 a depleted or needed to supply a military buildup (even one directed only at Germany). Such systemic pressures on B to reduce trade with A will foster negative expectations of future trade among A's leaders. But domestic and personal factors can also play a significant role in the exogenous rise or decline in B's likelihood of trading with A, indicating hat the assumption that B is a â€Å"unitary actor† must be relaxed to some degree when examining history. 39 In 1972, for example, the Soviets saw Nixon and Kissinger as firmly in control of American policy, and therefore able to carry through on commitments to increase East-West trade. Two years later, however, such a positive expectation for future trade could not be sustained in the wake of Watergate and the reassertion of Congressional power, at least at a price which was reasonable to the Soviets.This had much to do with the failure of detente, as I argue elsewhere. 40 A comparison of the arguments of trade expectations theory with those of liberal and realist theory is presented in Table 1. To summarize: liberals contend that high economic dependence, as manifest in high trade levels, reduces a state's likelihood of initiating war by providing a material â€Å"constraint† on unit-level forces for aggression. Low dependence will increase this likelihood, since this constraint on unit-level motives for war is removed.Realists argue that high dependence heightens the probability of war as dependent states struggle to reduce their vulnerability. In the realist world, however, low dependence should have no impact on the likelihood of war or peace; that is, other factors sh ould become causally determinant of war. Still, since economic interdependence is at least eliminated as a possible source of conflict, realists 39. Note that state A, the decision-making unit in the theory, can still be treated as a rational unitary actor respondingto the observed domestic forces on the other side. 0. See Copeland, â€Å"Modeling Economic Interdependence and War,†pp. 62-66. International trade institutions such as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), by lowering transaction costs and facilitating the punishment of cheaters, may be an additional means to build positive expectations for future trade. Indeed, for some liberals, peace may only be likely when both interdependence and effective global institutions co-exist and reinforce one another; Keohane, â€Å"International Liberalism Reconsidered,† p. 183.While such institutions may indeed affect trade expectations, they are unlikely to be as significant in history as the systemic and dom estic factors just discussed, for the simple reason that these institutions are a creation of the post-World War II era. Moreover, since concerns for war and peace revolve mostly around the great powers, and powers like Soviet Union and China have been historically excluded from trade institutions like GATT, such institutions cannot account for fluctuations in the levels of tension between the United States and these powers since 1945.Finally, the institutional approach overlooks bilateraldiplomacy as the principal mechanism through which expectations of trade change; consider the United States and Japan up to December 1941, or the United States and Japan today. 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